As the Olympics enters its final weekend, China's leaders probably feel they deserve gold medals of their own. The country has certainly had its fair share of problems. Terrorists took advantage of the global spotlight on China to launch deadly attacks (BusinessWeek.com, 8/4/08) in the western part of the country. A Chinese man stabbed and killed an American tourist the day after the opening ceremony. The on-and-off smog in the city has been an embarrassment. And the first week of the Games saw a surprising number of empty seats at many events (BusinessWeek.com, 8/15/08). But overall, the Games have gone smoothly, and stunning venues such as the National Stadium and the Water Cube have won rave reviews.

Supporters of China hosting the Olympics held out hopes that the Games would have long-term benefits for the human rights situation in the country, just as the 1988 Seoul Games helped pave the way for democracy in South Korea. For now, those hopes seem to have been misplaced (BusinessWeek.com, 7/31/08). Rather than releasing dissidents, the government rounded up more of them. China set up three protest areas in Beijing, but they were empty as the government made it extremely difficult for any groups to use them.

Beijing promised to lift Internet censorship for foreign reporters covering the Games but continued to block sites it considered sensitive. The result of all this? None of the embarrassing demonstrations that met the Olympic torch relay during its pre-Games trip to places like London, Paris, and San Francisco. "Mission accomplished, from the leaders' point of view," says Minky Worden, media director for Human Rights Watch and former aide to Martin Lee, the longtime democracy advocate in Hong Kong.

Progress Won't Come Quickly

Still, with the Olympic torch about to pass from Beijing to London, some China experts remain hopeful the Olympics will bringg improvement in human rights in the longer run. Cheng Li, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, believes the government's successful staging of the Games will be a boost to reformers. "I believe the Olympics [will] make China more open, more transparent, more tolerant, and more confident," says Li, who predicts progress on human rights and media freedom. "The Chinese government has become more confident because of a successful Olympics—that helps the liberal wing of the leaders…they will argue that we should not be so scared of the international media and international integration and also to a certain extent openness or transparency," he says.

Progress won't happen quickly, cautions Li. But he believes the Games will spur reform over the medium term. "Probably it will take another 5 to 10 years," says Li. "But who will win the battle is quite clear."

For now, the Games not only stymied progress but led to setbacks, as reform advocates took a back seat to policymakers stressing the need for control. With the Olympics almost out of the way, would-be reformers might have more room to promote changes, says Worden. "The hardliners were in the driver's seat," she says. "After the Olympics, the reform effort that has been stalled by the pressures of hosting a major international event could be restarted."

A Message to the Outside World

Two hopeful signs, says Worden, would be a relaxation of the pressure on lawyers taking on politically sensitive cases and the release of Hu Jia, the HIV/AIDS activist currently in detention. She also is looking toward a decision on whether to extend less-restrictive rules for foreign journalists that were put in place for the Games and are due to expire in October. Human Rights Watch has been asking companies such as Microsoft (MSFT), General Electric (GE), and Lenovo to lobby the government to extend the rules to local reporters. "If those freedoms can be extended to Chinese journalists, that could be one of the positive results of the games," Worden says.

Some U.S.-based China observers don't expect any change. The government's unwillingness to loosen controls was predictable, says Bonnie Glaser, a China expert at the Center for Strategic & International Studies. "I'm disappointed but not surprised by the not-very-substantial measures that the Chinese took to remain in line with their commitments for the Olympic Games," she says. "China was trying to send a message to the outside world that it was willing to take measures to open up, but internally the main concern was preserving stability. And I don't think that after the Games that will change so much."

Indeed, the successful staging of the Games—and the relative silence of international leaders—will reinforce the idea with President Hu Jintao, Premier Wen Jiabao, and other top members of the Communist Party that they don't need to loosen up, says Adam Segal, senior fellow for China Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. "They'll keep most of the things in place—certainly the harassment of the dissidents—and we won't see any kind of greater move towards liberalization or opening up or anything like that," he predicts. "Did this change China's view in the world? Is this a turning point? No. It will just reinforce your sense of a party that's completely insecure and lacking a great deal of confidence."

Einhorn is Asia regional editor in BusinessWeek's Hong Kong bureau. Delevingne is a BusinessWeek reporter in New York.